Peace on the Wong Pace
Peace on the Wrong Base
Abdo Roumani
Damascus – Friday, February, 2, 2009
It has been six days since Israel has begun its raids on Gaza, killing more than 400 people, including 70 children and dozens of civilians. More than two thousands have been injured. It is the Middle East and killing hundreds of innocent people is not new thing. Yet, what is happening in Gaza is a new kind of this Middle Eastern policy.
Israel says the operation is necessary to prevent the Palestinian rocket attacks on its southern cities. Israel renewed its raids on Gaza for a sixth day, hitting its full bank of 230 targets just on the first 3 days. However, only yesterday, 45 Palestinian rockets landed in Israeli southern cities, including ones were hit for the very first time.
Israel is considered to be the greatest military power in Middle East. Being threatened by a very small and weak organization like Hamas without being able to get rid of it, therefore, is illogical unless Israeli leaders want to keep Hamas and its rockets. In fact, an organization like Hamas cannot be exterminated by air raids or any other kind of military means. This organization is based on people’s support in Palestine. Its members are young men or even boys who join it, fight for it and get killed without even meeting their leaders. Those members fight in Palestine and receive orders from a political authority in Damascus. They cannot be targeted because they are divided into random groups, moving all over the territory, and launching their rockets on random sites. Guerrilla warfare is their job. An Israeli F16 can target a mosque, a school or a police station but it cannot target a couple of men carrying a small rocket and hiding in fields or under the ground. Israeli raids cannot hit the military sites of Hamas because it does not have ones. The only military solution to the rockets problem is a vast terrestrial invasion in which Israeli army loses a painful number of soldiers. However, this kind of solution might shut Hamas down for a while but it does not guarantee that this organization will not be born again. That is a fact which the Israeli government is aware of. They are not only aware of that but they are also aware of the fact that these raids, in which hundreds of thousands are losing their lives, their households and their peace, are going to make Palestinian people support Hamas and more young angry people will actually join it. The question is why are they waging a war which they know they cannot win? Perhaps the better question is what is Israel seeking of this whole operation?
Last month, on the political level, Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian President who is supported by Israel and its allies, said that a new presidential and parliamentary elections are going to take place in the beginning of the new year if the Palestinian parties do not agree to a reconciliation. After Gaza raids, however, Abbas’s position has been damaged as he has been considered to be a betrayer to many Palestinians, which will make it difficult for him to be re-elected as a president and for his party, Fateh, to win the coming parliamentary elections, especially after failing in achieving anything from the peace negotiation with the Israeli who has kept building new colonies on the Palestinian lands beside the racial separating wall.
On the other hand, the Israeli raids on Gaza have resulted in wide condemnations on the Arabian and International scales, embarrassing Egypt, the first Arabian country to make a peace pact with Israel, which has been considered as an accomplice in the Israeli assault. Al-Jazeera channel, the most popular in the Arab world, for the very first time, has accused the Egyptian government of collusion. The Egyptian embassies has be attacked in Beirut and invaded in Yemen by the angry crowds. Maybe this kind of actions is not surprising to most people around the world; it is, however, not as what it seems in the Arab world. An important TV channel like al-Jazeera is not usually allowed to attack Arab leaders or governments and attacking the Egyptian government on that channel is a first. Tzipi Livni, the Israeli foreign minister, indicated from Egypt two days before the raids began, that there was going to be a military operation on Gaza, which embarrassed the Egyptian government the most. Under the pressure that was made by many governments and the demonstrations in many cities all over the world, Egypt had to open its borders with Gaza for several times, allowing Arabian cargos of food and medical supplies to Gaza.
Waging a war in which Hamas gets stronger, getting Abbas’s position threatened and embarrassing the Egyptian government, which forces it to break the Israeli blockade on Gaza. Why would Israel do that? Israel has been blockading Gaza for long months, which damaged Hamas and its popularity among Palestinians. After Gaza new raids, however, many countries has been demanding to break the Israeli blockade, which will not be acceptable after the war ends, especially after the Palestinian elections. Once again, what is Israel seeking of this whole operation?
Diplomatic efforts have taken place in the region, with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on a tour of the Middle East in a bid to broker a new truce and a Palestinian-Palestinian peace deal that would have the support of the key Arab states. Before leaving to Cairo, Erdogan said that the Egyptians’ mediation among Palestinians was not going to be replaced by a Turkish one and the Turkish just wanted to help when Egypt and Arabs would ask for that. His tour started with Syria, Jordan and Palestine and his discussion with the Palestinian President, however, focused on the coming Palestinian elections. Earlier, the Turkish announced they had cancelled their mediation and hosting of a Syrian-Israeli peace negotiation because of the disappointing Israeli operation on Gaza. Their new efforts in the Middle East, however, make their mentioned announcement pointless since these efforts concern Israel and cannot work without the Israeli cooperation. The question is will the Egyptian role be replaced by a Turkish one? The answer is probably yes, this new player, who has been always away from the Middle East games, will be in this time and will probably score.
The Syrian-Israeli peace negotiations, which were hosted by Turkey, took place after Israel lost the war on the Lebanese Hezbollah in June 2006. In May 2008, Ehud Olmert, the Israeli Prime Minister, said that Israel would have to make painful concessions to Syria. In opinion polls, however, 70% of Israeli people refused making such concessions. On the other hand, Syrian government would not have accepted a peace pact in which the Syrians do not get the Golan Heights, which are occupied by Israel, back. Yet, and even though Turkey has stopped its mediation between Syria and Israel, there is still a serious peace talking, which will be temporary delayed, between the two countries. Achieving a peace treaty between Syria and Israel is inevitable and we can see that in the light of the following points:
§ On the Turkish level:
- Cancelling the Turkish mediation between Syria and Israel is formal, aiming to improve the Turkish position among Arab people, especially after Erdoga’s tour of the Middle East, in which he has used an enthusiastic speech, refusing the Israeli raids on Gaza.
- Since the Israeli are supporting Abbas, who is in a conflict with Hamas, which is supported by the Syrians, the Turkish mediation between Hamas and Fateh will not see the light without the Israeli supporting. Therefore, it must result in new truce and negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis. That will not work, however, without the Syrian supporting, which necessitates renewing the peace negotiation between Syria and Israel.
- The Turkish mediation comes due to the fact that the Turkish cooperation with both Israel and Syria will be developed, in the case of peace, to include power, irrigation and transportation projects. On the other hand, stability in the Middle East will give Turkey an important role between this important area and the European Union on all scales which will actually improve the Turkish efforts to join the European Union.
§ On the Israeli level:
- After losing the war on Hezbollah in 2000 and 2006, Israeli government has been aware of the fact that its forces cannot prevent Hezbollah from threatening the Israeli national security. The only military way to destroy Hezbollah’s resistance and ability of firing missiles is to hit their underground bases by nuclear weapons, which will be crossing Iranian and International red lines.
- Achieving a peace treaty between Syria and Israel is the only political way to shut Hezbollah and the Palestinian military groups down, especially because waging a war on Syria is too risky since this country is supplied with an advanced missiles system that threatens Israel, on the one hand. On the other hand, the Syrians are allied with the Iranians who will not hesitate in launching thousands of missiles onto Israel, causing a huge loss of lives properties.
- Due to the drought crisis in both Syria and Israel, these two countries need to cooperate in this field instead of fighting because their local sources of water are limited comparing to their growing needs. Experts have already spoken about irrigation projects in which Turkey supplies Israel with water through pipes, crossing Syria.
- Giving the Golan Heights back to Syria will be a big loss to Israelis. However, the cost of the war, which will break out sooner or later, will be bigger. Besides, achieving a peace treaty will offer Israel enough water to rehabilitate new lands and will improve the economy by reducing the high military budget.
- A peace treaty with Syria is an Israeli national interest because Israel will benefit from opening its northern borders, accessing to Europe and Asia and being a part of one of the most important terrestrial transportation in the world. In fact, Israel is the biggest loser in this war because it is preventing Israelis from most of the advantages people have in other countries.
§ On the Syrian level:
- Hezbollah, the Syrian ally, won the war on Israel in 2006 and maybe today Syria threatens Israel much more than it is threatens by it. The Syrian government, however, is aware of the fact that its means of pressure are limited. Maybe Hezbollah can win any war that Israel might wage on Lebanon, yet, Hezbollah cannot invade Israel. Maybe Israel is unable to wage a war on Syria which is unable, however, to get its Golan Heights back since the Syrian forces are not qualified for such a mission.
- Even though Syria has broken the American blockade, by developing relationships with important countries all over the world, the Syrian economy is still damaged by the American policy. Achieving a peace treaty with Israel will open the door to Syrian-American cooperation in which Syrian economy develops faster.
- Syria has a fair relationship with the European Union, however, important deals between Syrians and Europeans have been suspend mostly because of status of war in the Middle East and the Syrian policy in supporting what is considered to be terrorism by Europeans, in addition to the American and Israeli pressures on Europeans.
- Syrian government aspires to make Syria into a network of oil pipes, which will be difficult in the war circumstances.
§ On the International level:
- In fact, a peace treaty has been always a Syrian and Israeli national interest, however, in the last three decades; the American governments have not been helping the peace path between Syria and Israel. The American governments have always wanted Syria and Israel to be in the statue of war. I have always been impressed with Henry Kissinger’s saying “You can’t make war in the Middle East without Egypt and you can’t make peace without Syria.” This sentence clarifies the whole American policy towards the Middle East. This Gray statue of the no war and no peace has made the mess, which has guaranteed the continuation of the American intervention in the region. Kissinger’s rule, however, was broken in 2006 when Israel lost the war on Hezbollah. Today Egypt is out of the picture and the Iranian role has been growing on a large scale. Israel is a hand cuffed giant and the Americans are forced to consider a new policy towards the Middle East, especially because the Europeans are competing to take a big role in this region. The new policy is expected to be flexible since the elected American President; Barak Obama has already considered talking to the Syrians and Iranians, even though his tone has been severe towards these countries.
- As for the Europeans, they are supporting the Turkish efforts, especially after the U.S. position has been abated in the region. Unlike the Americans, the Europeans are interested in stability in the Middle East. Enlarging the big Union to include countries like Turkey, the deals which have been suspend and the Mediterranean Union Project depend on peace treaties in the Middle East.
- As for the Iranians, they have proven that they are a political and military power which cannot be avoided in the region. Lately, many Western countries, including the United States, have been talking about giving the Iranians some of what they want. The Iranians are, however, aware of the fact that they cannot go further. In fact, the relationship between Washington and Tehran is going to be the key of any solution in the Middle East in the next eight years. Today, the Americans and the Iranians understand that they are going to the nowhere with their conflict. The American-Iranian-Cooperation is required in Iraq, the Gulf region and in the countries on the East of the Mediterranean.
There is no doubt the Israeli assault has been making Hamas stronger. There is no military solution for Hamas rockets and bombs. Israel had occupied Gaza for four decades; however, the Israeli could not have Hamas and its rockets removed, so how can they possibly do that now? Israeli government has been aware of these facts before it has begun their air assault. Making Hamas stronger is what they actually need. This operation is going to make a new reality; in which there will be a new balance, the coming Israeli government will have to deal with. The Syrian government have announced that Israel must prove they are serious about the peace talking so that the Syrians would accept to switch to direct negotiations. I believe the Israelis have just proven that. Today, hundreds of people are getting killed in Gaza but tomorrow more rockets will be launched against Israel. More Israeli people will be killed in terrorist operations. War is going to get on a larger scale and more blood will be shed. In the end, the Israeli government is going to convince its people that they have to accept a peace pact, in which they make painful concessions and the 70% who have refused will have to reconsider their position.
Is what is happening in the Middle East today a good thing? No it is not. How can a peace treaty be a good thing when it is based on bloodshed? Similar peace treaties were made among Israel, Egypt and Jordan. It has been many years, however, Egyptians and Jordanians demand to cut the ties with Israel every time they make demonstrations when a crisis occurs in the Middle East. The conflict among those people was not solved so the peace treaties were based on the wrong bases.
Today, Israeli and Syrian government are negotiating about the Golan Heights. They are ignoring, however, that the war has begun since 1948, 17 years before the Golan Heights were occupied by Israel. Israeli people believe in a Jewish nation which includes Palestine, Lebanon, Jordan and big parts of Syria, Iraq and Egypt. How will the Syrian people accept that? On the other hand, the Syrians have a creed, in which they aspire to unite the Arab world under one flag and that conflict with the existence of Israel. In fact, this situation clarifies why a peace treaty between Syria and Israel is being based on bloodshed. It is, simply, the kind of Middle Eastern peace.
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